Deutsche Bank Raises 2013 Gold Forecast to $2,113

October 3, 2012 at 07:34


Deutsche Bank raised its 2013 price outlook for gold by 3 percent to $2,113 per ounce, saying that U.S central bank intervention and provision of further liquidity is unambiguously bullish for the precious metals sector.

“While we have targeted gold prices moving above $2,000/oz since the beginning of 2011, we believe the Fed’s open ended programme of QE (quantitative easing) announced last month increases our confidence that a surge in the gold price above this level is only a matter of time,”  Deutsche Bank said in a research note on Tuesday.

It also raised its 2013 price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude by 9.4 percent to $104.75 per barrel and for Brent crude by 9.1 percent to $113.50.

“We believe in an environment of falling OPEC spare capacity and positive oil demand growth, price corrections in the oil price will be short-lived,” the bank said.

Deutsche Bank said it did not expect the U.S. shale oil revolution to trigger a significant price correction like the one that occurred in the U.S. natural gas market. The immediate effect, it said, would be to sustain the discount of WTI to other major regional benchmarks.

Among industrial metals, the bank lowered its 2013 price outlooks for aluminium, nickel, and tin, while raising its forecast for zinc.

“We expect copper and nickel are likely to outperform while lead and aluminium will underperform, ” Deutsche Bank said.

“Central banks can do so much to support financial markets,” it said, “but, in the absence of growth, most notably in the U.S. and China, we believe energy and industrial metal prices are vulnerable in the absence of further rounds of intervention.”

The bank said physical fundamentals in the industrial metals complex remained poor, but the market may surprise to the upside as a result of policy action by government authorities.